Experiment : BREI Vechi 2005-2009 VS IndexImobiliar 1996-2009

Din intamplare am dat peste un PDF foarte interesant despre BREI (descriere, grafice etc). Am schimbat baza de calcul pentru indicele de pret calculat de mine pentru perioada 1996-2009 astfel incat 100% sa fie aproximativ in prima luna din care a inceput Colliers realizarea indicelui (Februarie 2005 intrucat mie imi lipseste luna ianuarie 2005). Pana in 2008 valorile BREI sint calculate trimestrial. Ce a iesit :



edit: vad ca nu mai apar probleme la graficele interactive daca lipsesc date din serie asa ca pun si varianta vectoriala a comparatiei :

Update : Indicele Colliers BREI pe martie

Ca de obicei, cu doua saptamani intarziere, a aparut si "mult asteptatul" indice BREI. Am observat doua chestii :
1. Pentru BREI Nou ni se spune ca valoarea a ramas neschimbata, respectiv 1784. Intrucat s-au cam incurcat in cifre, le aduc eu aminte ca valoarea BREI Nou pe ianuarie si Februarie a fost 1778E/mp, dupa cum cu onor ne-au anuntat prin propriile comunicate de presa. Rezulta un BREI total de 1359.32.

2. Pentru Brei vechi ni se prezinta cifra de 1133E/mp reprezentand o scadere cu 15% fata de luna anterioara, cea mai mare martie 2008 pana in prezent.
Ca fapt divers, scaderea intregistrata in statisticile mele a fost de 6.5% la total si 6.8% la pretul pe metrul patrat.



Graficul pe componente:

Peter Schiff la Ludwig von Mises Institute

Cateva citate:

The government looks at the problem that home prices are falling. That's the solution! The problem is that they went up." (apropo de articolul acesta

George Bush, in one of his speaches, said that Wall Street got drunk. And he was right, they were drunk. But so was main street ... the whole country was drunk. But what he doesn't point out is where did they get the alcohol?

Obviously, Greenspan poured the alcohol, the Fed got everybody drunk, and the government helped out with their moral hazards, the tax codes...and all the various ways they interfered with the free market, and removed the necessary balances that would have existed that would have kept all this from happening

Because, you know, the Chinese mentioned just yesterday, that they were getting a little concerned about all the money they loaned us and just maybe we won't pay them back. You know, I'm sure they're more than just a little concerned because that's what they said publicly. Imagine what they're saying privately. 'Cos they know we're not going to pay them back. Of course we're not going to pay the Chinese back their money. It's impossible. We don't have. . . we can't possibly. Can you imagine if president Obama, you know, giving the following type of speech to the American citizens. Gives a national televised address and says, you know, "My fellow Americans, I've got a little news for you today. We're going to have a massive across-the-board tax increase on average working Americans. Any American that still has a job, is going to have to pay much higher income taxes. As a matter of fact, we have to cut social security across the board. If you're getting a social security check, we're going to have to reduce it. And all my plans about more education and health care for everybody and energy independence, we gotta put all those plans on hold, because the Chinese need their money. We borrowed a lot of money from the Chinese and we're good for our debts. You know they worked hard for that money and loaned it to us and we're going to pay them back and that's going to require a big sacrifice on our part." Does anyone think that we're going to do that? Are they kidding me? You know what we're going to tell the Chinese? You know what we're going to tell the Chinese? We're going to say, 'You guys are predators! Predatory lenders! We need a modification program! You never should have lent us all this money, you know we can't pay it back. It's not our fault! I mean, the Chinese know this. The Chinese can't even vote in our election. Why are we going to care what they think? We're going to tax voters to pay none voters? So the Chinese know they're in this box, I mean, the US government . . . We don't pay our bills, we're like Bernie Madoff, right? People loan us money. How do we pay it back? We borrow more.
[...]
Hillary Clinton, and when she went over to China, couple of weeks ago, to get them, to beg them to buy our bonds, right, she told them, we're all in this together, right. And basically, this is what she tells the Chinese, "You need to take money away from your citizens and loan it to us, so we can give it to our citizens, so that they can use it to buy products made in your company, to keep your people employed." That's the deal we're making with them. Now what the Chinese should say to Clinton is, "You know what? I got a better idea. Why don't we just leave our money with our own people and then they can use their own money to buy their own products? That way we get to keep our stuff.

Evolutia in procente a pretului mediu lunar pe tipuri de apartamente

• Evolutia procentuala a pretului mediu lunar al apartamentelor din Bucuresti (iunie 2008 = 100)
  

• Evolutia procentuala a pretului mediu lunar pe metrul patrat al apartamentelor din Bucuresti (iunie 2008 = 100)
  

Romani loviti de criza

Avem un bottom? In Romania criza economica de-abia a inceput...

Marea-Britanie : scadere a preturilor imobiliare de 1.9% in martie (fata de februarie)

Intrucat ieri o anumita parte a presei jubila voioasa anuntandu-se ca in Anglia criza a luat sfarsit, citand un raport dubios prezentat de o doamna la fel de dubioasa, luata la misto in regat pentru previziunile care sfidau realitatile pietei, iata ca astazi The Halifax House Price Index ne prezinta o scadere cu 1.9% a preturilor imobiliare. Raportul pentru luna martie il gasiti aici.

Marea ţeapă

Intrucat nu mi-am propus sa transform blogul in versiunea online a otv-ului, o sa inchei postarile din seria "Softpedia". Explicatia pentru tot ce se intampla este acolo este data scurt de Bogdan Gheorghe, co-proprietar Softpedia:

Faptul ca “frustratii imobiliari” nu sunt lasati sa acopere forumul de preziceri catastrofice pe ideea ca “sa moara speculantii”, sa avem toti case mari la pret de 5 USD/bucata, dar sa nu avem cei 5 USD… mi se pare OK.

Intregul text aici

Si pentru ca tot a afirmat :

Zilele trecute ma uitam dupa un apt de 2 camere si NU mi s-au aprut deloc MICI/Prabusite preturile.
Dimpotriva….

.. ii dedic urmatorul grafic



Se observa ca in Romania nu am avut bubble imobiliar, bubble au avut americanii. Noi am avut o mare ţeapă.